The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on community non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections in preschool children.

BACKGROUND: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic were mainly studied for severe outcomes. Among children, most of the burden of respiratory infections is related to infections which are not medically attended. The perspective on infections in the community setting is necessary to understand the effects of the pandemic on non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS: In the unique prospective LoewenKIDS cohort study, we compared the true monthly incidence of self-reported acute respiratory infections (ARI) in about 350 participants (aged 3-4 years old) between October 2019 to March 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and October 2020 to March 2021 (pandemic period). Parents reported children's symptoms using a diary. Parents were asked to take a nasal swab of their child during all respiratory symptoms. We analysed 718 swabs using Multiplex PCR for 25 common respiratory viruses and bacteria. RESULTS: During the pre-pandemic period, on average 44.6% (95% CI: 39.5-49.8%) of children acquired at least one ARI per month compared to 19.9% (95% CI: 11.1-28.7%) during the pandemic period (Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.41-0.54). The detection of influenza virus decreased absolute by 96%, respiratory syncytial virus by 65%, metapneumovirus by 95%, parainfluenza virus by 100%, human enterovirus by 96% and human bocavirus by 70% when comparing the pre-pandemic to the pandemic period. However, rhinoviruses were nearly unaffected by NPI. Co-detection (detection of more than one virus in a single symptomatic swab) was common in the pre-pandemic period (222 of 390 samples with viral detection; 56.9%) and substantially less common during the pandemic period (46 of 216 samples; 21.3%). CONCLUSION: Non-pharmaceutical interventions strongly reduced the incidence of all respiratory infections in preschool children but did not affect rhinovirus.

Regional patient transfer patterns matter for the spread of hospital-acquired pathogens.

Pathogens typically responsible for hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) constitute a major threat to healthcare systems worldwide. They spread via hospital (or hospital-community) networks by readmissions or patient transfers. Therefore, knowledge of these networks is essential to develop and test strategies to mitigate and control the HAI spread. Until now, no methods for comparing healthcare networks across different systems were proposed. Based on healthcare insurance data from four German federal states (Bavaria, Lower Saxony, Saxony and Thuringia), we constructed hospital networks and compared them in a systematic approach regarding population, hospital characteristics, and patient transfer patterns. Direct patient transfers between hospitals had only a limited impact on HAI spread. Whereas, with low colonization clearance rates, readmissions to the same hospitals posed the biggest transmission risk of all inter-hospital transfers. We then generated hospital-community networks, in which patients either stay in communities or in hospitals. We found that network characteristics affect the final prevalence and the time to reach it. However, depending on the characteristics of the pathogen (colonization clearance rate and transmission rate or even the relationship between transmission rate in hospitals and in the community), the studied networks performed differently. The differences were not large, but justify further studies.

Transmission of drug-resistant bacteria in a hospital-community model stratified by patient risk.

A susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model for simulating healthcare-acquired infection spread within a hospital and associated community is proposed. The model accounts for the stratification of in-patients into two susceptibility-based risk groups. The model is formulated as a system of first-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with appropriate initial conditions. The mathematical analysis of this system is demonstrated. It is shown that the system has unique global solutions, which are bounded and non-negative. The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) for the considered model is derived. The existence and the stability of the stationary solutions are analysed. The disease-free stationary solution is always present and is globally asymptotically stable for [Formula: see text], while for [Formula: see text] it is unstable. The presence of an endemic stationary solution depends on the model parameters and when it exists, it is globally asymptotically stable. The endemic state encompasses both risk groups. The endemic state within only one group only is not possible. In addition, for [Formula: see text] a forward bifurcation takes place. Numerical simulations, based on the anonymised insurance data, are also presented to illustrate theoretical results.

The effect of re-directed patient flow in combination with targeted infection control measures on the spread of multi-drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in the German health-care system: a mathematical modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: The introduction of multi-drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDR-E) by colonized patients transferred from high-prevalence countries has led to several large outbreaks of MDR-E in low-prevalence countries, with the risk of propagated spread to the community. The goal of this study was to derive a strategy to counteract the spread of MDR-E at the regional health-care network level. METHODS: We used a hybrid ordinary differential equation and network model built based on German health insurance data to evaluate whether the re-direction of patient flow in combination with targeted infection control measures can counteract the spread of MDR-E in the German health-care system. We applied pragmatic re-direction strategies focusing on a reduced choice of hospitals for subsequent stays after initial hospitalization but not manipulating direct transfers because these are most likely determined by medical needs. RESULTS: The re-direction strategies alone did not reduce the system-wide spread of MDR-E (system-wide prevalence of MDR-E is 18.7% vs. 25.7%/29.9%). In contrast, targeted hospital-based infection control measures restricted to institutions with the highest institutional basic reproduction numbers in the network were identified as an effective tool for reducing system-wide prevalence (system-wide prevalence of MDR-E is 18.7% vs. 9.3%). If these measures were applied to the top one-third of hospitals, the system-wide prevalence could be reduced by approximately 80% (system-wide prevalence of 18.7% vs. 3.5% for one-third of patients subjected to interventions). A combination of this hospital-based intervention and patient re-direction strategies could not improve the effectiveness of the hospital-based approach (system-wide prevalence of MDR-E is 9.3% vs. 14.2%/14.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The pragmatic patient re-direction strategies were not capable of restricting the spread of MDR-E in a simulation of the German health-care system; in contrast, hospital-based interventions focusing on institutions identified based on network transmission patterns seem to be a promising approach for sustainable reduction of the spread of MDR-E through the German population.

Anxiety and depressive symptoms of German university students 20 months after the COVID-19 outbreak - A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Given the long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, monitoring mental health remains important. This study aimed to determine (1) the prevalence of anxiety and depressive symptoms among university students 20 months after the first COVID-19 restrictions and (2) which factors were associated with these outcomes. METHODS: The cross-sectional COVID-19 German Student Well-being Study (C19 GSWS) collected data of 7025 students at five German universities. Associations between anxiety and depressive symptoms with sociodemographic and other factors were analysed using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 23.9 years (SD = 4.9), 67 % were female and 31 % male. The prevalence for depressive symptoms was 29 % (PHQ-2) and 12 % (CES-D 8) and 32 % for anxiety. A complicated relationship status, the lack of a trusted person, and financial difficulties were associated with anxiety and depressive symptoms. University students who were worried about (re-) infection with COVID-19 had a 1.37-times higher chance for reporting anxiety (GAD-2: OR, 95 % CI: 1.09-1.71). Those with pre-existing cardiovascular health conditions had an up to 3.21-times higher chance for reporting depressive symptoms (OR, CESD-D 8, 95 % CI: 1.44-7.14). LIMITATIONS: The study design is cross-sectional and uses self-reported outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Concepts for prevention and counselling to tackle mental health problems in students are needed and programmes should take specific stressors related to the pandemic into account.

Development of the simulation-based German albuminuria screening model (S-GASM) for estimating the cost-effectiveness of albuminuria screening in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is often asymptomatic in its early stages but constitutes a severe burden for patients and causes major healthcare systems costs worldwide. While models for assessing the cost-effectiveness of screening were proposed in the past, they often presented only a limited view. This study aimed to develop a simulation-based German Albuminuria Screening Model (S-GASM) and present some initial applications. METHODS: The model consists of an individual-based simulation of disease progression, considering age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, and quality of life, furthermore, costs of testing, therapy, and renal replacement therapy with parameters based on published evidence. Selected screening scenarios were compared in a cost-effectiveness analysis. RESULTS: Compared to no testing, a simulation of 10 million individuals with a current age distribution of the adult German population and a follow-up until death or the age of 90 shows that a testing of all individuals with diabetes every two years leads to a reduction of the lifetime prevalence of renal replacement therapy from 2.5% to 2.3%. The undiscounted costs of this intervention would be 1164.10 € / QALY (quality-adjusted life year). Considering saved costs for renal replacement therapy, the overall undiscounted costs would be-12581.95 € / QALY. Testing all individuals with diabetes or hypertension and screening the general population reduced the lifetime prevalence even further (to 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively). Both scenarios were cost-saving (undiscounted, - 7127.10 €/QALY and-5439.23 €/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: The S-GASM can be used for the comparison of various albuminuria testing strategies. The exemplary analysis demonstrates cost savings through albuminuria testing for individuals with diabetes, diabetes or hypertension, and for population-wide screening.

Symptom Burden and Factors Associated with Acute Respiratory Infections in the First Two Years of Life-Results from the LoewenKIDS Cohort.

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common childhood illnesses worldwide whereby the reported frequency varies widely, often depending on type of assessment. Symptom diaries are a powerful tool to counteract possible under-reporting, particularly of milder infections, and thus offer the possibility to assess the full burden of ARIs. The following analyses are based on symptom diaries from participants of the German birth cohort study LoewenKIDS. Primary analyses included frequencies of ARIs and specific symptoms. Factors, which might be associated with an increased number of ARIs, were identified using the Poisson regression. A subsample of two hundred eighty-eight participants were included. On average, 13.7 ARIs (SD: 5.2 median: 14.0 IQR: 10-17) were reported in the first two years of life with an average duration of 11 days per episode (SD: 5.8, median: 9.7, IQR: 7-14). The median age for the first ARI episode was 91 days (IQR: 57-128, mean: 107, SD: 84.5). Childcare attendance and having siblings were associated with an increased frequency of ARIs, while exclusive breastfeeding for the first three months was associated with less ARIs, compared to exclusive breastfeeding for a longer period. This study provides detailed insight into the symptom burden of ARIs in German infants.

Sexual Contact Patterns in High-Income Countries-A Comparative Analysis Using Data From Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Sexual contact patterns determine the spread of sexually transmitted infections and are a central input parameter for mathematical models in this field. We evaluated the importance of country-specific sexual contact pattern parametrization for high-income countries with similar cultural backgrounds by comparing data from two independent studies (HaBIDS and SBG) in Germany, a country without systematic sexual contact pattern data, with data from the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal) in the UK, and the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) in the US, the two longest running sexual contact studies in high-income countries. We investigated differences in the distribution of the reported number of opposite-sex partners, same-sex partners and both-sex partners using weighted negative binomial regression adjusted for age and sex (as well as stratified by age). In our analyses, UK and US participants reported a substantially higher number of lifetime opposite-sex sexual partners compared to both German studies. The difference in lifetime partners was caused by a higher proportion of individuals with many partners in the young age group (<24 years) in the UK and the US. Partner acquisition in older age groups was similar. The number of same-sex partners was similar across countries, while there was heterogeneity in the reported experience with partners from both sexes, consistent with the differences observed for opposite-sex sexual partners. These patterns can lead to substantially different dynamics of sexually transmitted infections across ages, and have strong impact on the results of modeling studies.

Individual social contact data and population mobility data as early markers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the first wave in Germany-an analysis based on the COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of contact reduction measures on infectious disease transmission can only be assessed indirectly and with considerable delay. However, individual social contact data and population mobility data can offer near real-time proxy information. The aim of this study is to compare social contact data and population mobility data with respect to their ability to reflect transmission dynamics during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany. METHODS: We quantified the change in social contact patterns derived from self-reported contact survey data collected by the German COVIMOD study from 04/2020 to 06/2020 (compared to the pre-pandemic period from previous studies) and estimated the percentage mean reduction over time. We compared these results as well as the percentage mean reduction in population mobility data (corrected for pre-pandemic mobility) with and without the introduction of scaling factors and specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility to the relative reduction in transmission dynamics measured by changes in R values provided by the German Public Health Institute. RESULTS: We observed the largest reduction in social contacts (90%, compared to pre-pandemic data) in late April corresponding to the strictest contact reduction measures. Thereafter, the reduction in contacts dropped continuously to a minimum of 73% in late June. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from contact survey data underestimated the one based on reported R values in the time of strictest contact reduction measures but reflected it well thereafter. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from mobility data overestimated the one based on reported R values considerably throughout the study. After the introduction of a scaling factor, specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility reduced the mean absolute percentage error considerably; in all analyses, estimates based on contact data reflected measured R values better than those based on mobility. CONCLUSIONS: Contact survey data reflected infection dynamics better than population mobility data, indicating that both data sources cover different dimensions of infection dynamics. The use of contact type-specific weights reduced the mean absolute percentage errors to less than 1%. Measuring the changes in mobility alone is not sufficient for understanding the changes in transmission dynamics triggered by public health measures.

The risk of indoor sports and culture events for the transmission of COVID-19.

Nearly all mass gathering events worldwide were banned at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, as they were suspected of presenting a considerable risk for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 by droplets and aerosols during an experimental indoor mass gathering event under three different hygiene practices, and used the data in a simulation study to estimate the resulting burden of disease under conditions of controlled epidemics. Our results show that the mean number of measured direct contacts per visitor was nine persons and this can be reduced substantially by appropriate hygiene practices. A comparison of two versions of ventilation with different air exchange rates and different airflows found that the system which performed worst allowed a ten-fold increase in the number of individuals exposed to infectious aerosols. The overall burden of infections resulting from indoor mass gatherings depends largely on the quality of the ventilation system and the hygiene practices. Presuming an effective ventilation system, indoor mass gathering events with suitable hygiene practices have a very small, if any, effect on epidemic spread.

Effects of incomplete inter-hospital network data on the assessment of transmission dynamics of hospital-acquired infections.

In the year 2020, there were 105 different statutory insurance companies in Germany with heterogeneous regional coverage. Obtaining data from all insurance companies is challenging, so that it is likely that projects will have to rely on data not covering the whole population. Consequently, the study of epidemic spread in hospital referral networks using data-driven models may be biased. We studied this bias using data from three German regional insurance companies covering four federal states: AOK (historically "general local health insurance company", but currently only the abbreviation is used) Lower Saxony (in Federal State of Lower Saxony), AOK Bavaria (in Bavaria), and AOK PLUS (in Thuringia and Saxony). To understand how incomplete data influence network characteristics and related epidemic simulations, we created sampled datasets by randomly dropping a proportion of patients from the full datasets and replacing them with random copies of the remaining patients to obtain scale-up datasets to the original size. For the sampled and scale-up datasets, we calculated several commonly used network measures, and compared them to those derived from the original data. We found that the network measures (degree, strength and closeness) were rather sensitive to incompleteness. Infection prevalence as an outcome from the applied susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model was fairly robust against incompleteness. At incompleteness levels as high as 90% of the original datasets the prevalence estimation bias was below 5% in scale-up datasets. Consequently, a coverage as low as 10% of the local population of the federal state population was sufficient to maintain the relative bias in prevalence below 10% for a wide range of transmission parameters as encountered in clinical settings. Our findings are reassuring that despite incomplete coverage of the population, German health insurance data can be used to study effects of patient traffic between institutions on the spread of pathogens within healthcare networks.

Relevance of intra-hospital patient movements for the spread of healthcare-associated infections within hospitals - a mathematical modeling study.

The aim of this study is to analyze patient movement patterns between hospital departments to derive the underlying intra-hospital movement network, and to assess if movement patterns differ between patients at high or low risk of colonization. For that purpose, we analyzed patient electronic medical record data from five hospitals to extract information on risk stratification and patient intra-hospital movements. Movement patterns were visualized as networks, and network centrality measures were calculated. Next, using an agent-based model where agents represent patients and intra-hospital patient movements were explicitly modeled, we simulated the spread of multidrug resistant enterobacteriacae (MDR-E) inside a hospital. Risk stratification of patients according to certain ICD-10 codes revealed that length of stay, patient age, and mean number of movements per admission were higher in the high-risk groups. Movement networks in all hospitals displayed a high variability among departments concerning their network centrality and connectedness with a few highly connected departments and many weakly connected peripheral departments. Simulating the spread of a pathogen in one hospital network showed positive correlation between department prevalence and network centrality measures. This study highlights the importance of intra-hospital patient movements and their possible impact on pathogen spread. Targeting interventions to departments of higher (weighted) degree may help to control the spread of MDR-E. Moreover, when the colonization status of patients coming from different departments is unknown, a ranking system based on department centralities may be used to design more effective interventions that mitigate pathogen spread.

Modelling pathogen spread in a healthcare network: Indirect patient movements.

Inter-hospital patient transfers (direct transfers) between healthcare facilities have been shown to contribute to the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network. However, the impact of indirect transfers (patients re-admitted from the community to the same or different hospital) is not well studied. This work aims to study the contribution of indirect transfers to the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network. To address this aim, a hybrid network-deterministic model to simulate the spread of multiresistant pathogens in a healthcare system was developed for the region of Lower Saxony (Germany). The model accounts for both, direct and indirect transfers of patients. Intra-hospital pathogen transmission is governed by a SIS model expressed by a system of ordinary differential equations. Our results show that the proposed model reproduces the basic properties of healthcare-associated pathogen spread. They also show the importance of indirect transfers: restricting the pathogen spread to direct transfers only leads to 4.2% system wide prevalence. However, adding indirect transfers leads to an increase in the overall prevalence by a factor of 4 (18%). In addition, we demonstrated that the final prevalence in the individual healthcare facilities depends on average length of stay in a way described by a non-linear concave function. Moreover, we demonstrate that the network parameters of the model may be derived from administrative admission/discharge records. In particular, they are sufficient to obtain inter-hospital transfer probabilities, and to express the patients' transfers as a Markov process. Using the proposed model, we show that indirect transfers of patients are equally or even more important as direct transfers for the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network.

[Self-reported infections in the German National Cohort (GNC) in the context of the current research landscape]. / Selbst berichtete Infektionen in der NAKO Gesundheitsstudie ­ Einordnung in die gegenwärtige Forschungslandschaft.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases continue to play an important role for disease perception, health-economic considerations and public health in Germany. In recent years, infectious diseases have been linked to the development of non-communicable diseases. Analyses of the German National Cohort (GNC) may provide deeper insights into this issue and pave the way for new targeted approaches in disease prevention. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to describe the tools used to assess infectious diseases and to present initial data on infectious disease frequencies, as well as to relate the GNC assessment tools to data collection methods in other studies in Germany. METHODS: As part of the baseline examination, questions regarding infectious diseases were administered using both an interview and a self-administered touchscreen questionnaire. Data from the initial 101,787 GNC participants were analysed. RESULTS: In the interview, 0.2% (HIV/AIDS) to 8.6% (shingles) of respondents reported ever having a medical diagnosis of shingles, postherpetic neuralgia (in cases where shingles was reported), hepatitis B/C, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis or sepsis if treated in hospital. In the questionnaire, 12% (cystitis) to 81% (upper respiratory tract infections) of respondents reported having experienced at least one occurrence of upper or lower respiratory tract infections, gastrointestinal infections, cystitis or fever within the past 12 months. OUTLOOK: The cross-sectional analyses of data and tools presented here - for example on determinants of susceptibility to self-reported infections - can be anticipated from the year 2021 onward. Beyond that, more extensive research into infectious disease epidemiology will follow, particularly once analyses of GNC biological materials have been performed.

[Occurrence of bronchial asthma and age at initial asthma diagnosis-first results of the German National Cohort]. / Häufigkeit von Asthma bronchiale und Alter bei der Erstdiagnose ­ erste Ergebnisse der NAKO Gesundheitsstudie.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in both children and adults. Asthma first occurring in adulthood (adult-onset asthma, AOA) is associated with poorer prognosis compared to childhood-onset asthma (COA), which urgently calls for more research in this area. The aim of this work was to analyze the data on asthma collected in the German National Cohort and compare it with the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS), in particular regarding AOA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Our analysis was based on the dataset of the main questionnaire at mid-term of the German National Cohort baseline examination, comprising 101,723 participants. Variables considered in the analyses were self-reported diagnosis of asthma, age at first diagnosis, asthma treatment in the past 12 months, age, and sex. RESULTS: In the midterm dataset, 8.7% of women and 7.0% of men in the German National Cohort reported that they had ever been diagnosed with asthma. Approximately one third of participants with asthma received their initial diagnosis before their 18th birthday. COA affected 2.2% of women and 2.8% of men, whereas AOA affected 6.5% of women and 4.2% of men. During the previous 12 months, 33% of COA cases and 60% of AOA cases were medically treated. CONCLUSION: The proportion of persons affected by asthma in the German National Cohort, as well as observed patterns regarding age and gender, corresponds to other data sources such as DEGS. However, in our analysis, the proportion of individuals with AOA was higher than described in the literature. The increase in cumulative asthma diagnoses with age is markedly steeper in younger participants, indicating a rising trend over time.

Risk estimation for air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe - A mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Aim of our study was to identify conditions under which malaria transmission caused by imported infectious mosquitoes or travellers could occur at large central European airports, and if such transmission could be sustained by indigenous mosquitoes. METHODS: We developed a deterministic and a stochastic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (humans)/Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious (mosquitoes) model with two mosquito (imported Anopheles gambiae, indigenous A. plumbeus) and three human (travellers, airport personnel exposed/not exposed to imported A. gambiae) populations. We assessed various scenarios to identify combinations of model parameters leading to ongoing malaria transmission at the airport. RESULTS: The number of infected airport personnel was low (five infected employees/six months) under assumptions reflecting possible future climatic conditions, current passenger mobility and no desinsection of airports/aircraft. Almost all infections among airport personnel were directly due to bites by imported A. gambiae. Indigenous mosquitoes would need to have comparable transmission parameters to A. gambiae to sustain disease transmission. Incoming infectious passengers play only a minor role in malaria transmission. Use of aircraft/airport desinsection led to no transmission events in the model. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that sustainable air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe is unlikely under current conditions or conditions which might become realistic in the next century.

Reduction of cervical cancer incidence within a primary HPV screening pilot project (WOLPHSCREEN) in Wolfsburg, Germany.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials showed human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening leads to a significant reduction in cervical cancer incidence compared with cytology-based screening only. METHODS: Non-hysterectomised participants ≥30 years underwent co-testing with Papanicolaou (Pap) smear and HR-HPV testing (Hybrid Capture 2; HC2). Women with normal findings had their next screening round after 5 years, and HC2+ and Pap abnormal cases were immediately referred for colposcopy, while cases with discordant findings had repeat testing after 12 months with referral to colposcopy in cases with persistent positive findings. RESULTS: Twenty-six thousand six hundred and twenty-four women were recruited between February 2006 and December 2016. Two hundred and seventy-four CIN3+ cases were diagnosed (270 HPV+, 4 HPV-), including 31 invasive cervical cancers (29 HPV+, 2 HPV-). No CIN3+ was detected in HPV- women with abnormal cytology. We observed a significant decline in the 5-year incidence of CIN3+ (from 0.96% [95% CI 0.85-1.09%] to 0.16% [95% CI 0.10-0.25%]; p < 0.0001) and cervical cancer (from 0.10% [95% CI 0.07%-0.15%] to 0.025% [95% CI 0.01-0.08%]; p = 0.01) between the first and subsequent rounds. Approximately 90% (246/274) of CIN3+ cases were diagnosed at first colposcopy. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in disease rates with 5-yearly co-testing seems mainly attributable to HPV testing since no CIN3+ occurred in HPV-/Pap+ women.

Herpes zoster incidence in Germany - an indirect validation study for self-reported disease data from pretest studies of the population-based German National Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Until now, herpes zoster (HZ)-related disease burden in Germany has been estimated based on health insurance data and clinical findings. However, the validity of self-reported HZ is unclear. This study investigated the validity of self-reported herpes zoster (HZ) and its complication postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) using data from the pretest studies of the German National Cohort (GNC) in comparison with estimates based on health insurance data. METHODS: Data of 4751 participants aged between 20 and 69 years from two pretest studies of the GNC carried out in 2011 and 2012 were used. Based on self-reports of physician-diagnosed HZ and PHN, age- and sex-specific HZ incidence rates and PHN proportions were estimated. For comparison, estimates based on statutory health insurance data from the German population were considered. RESULTS: Eleven percent (95%-CI, 10.4 to 12.3, n = 539) of the participants reported at least one HZ episode in their lifetime. Our estimated age-specific HZ incidence rates were lower than previous estimates based on statutory health insurance data. The PHN proportion in participants older than 50 years was 5.9% (1.9 to 13.9%), which was in line with estimates based on health insurance data. CONCLUSION: As age- and sex-specific patterns were comparable with that in health insurance data, self-reported diagnosis of HZ seems to be a valid instrument for overall disease trends. Possible reasons for observed differences in incidence rates are recall bias in self-reported data or overestimation in health insurance data.